A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
